…imprisonment rate and a measure of the cost of living explained past variation in crime rates with minimal error.  The authors then used the model to forecast crime rates through…

…annual changes in crime rates through 2026. The forecast for violent crime is a slight decrease each year through 2026, while the forecast for property crime shows slight yearly increases. Finally,…

…since World War II. We defined crime booms as crime rates that increase rapidly and exhibit a positive sustained change in direction. Based on our definition, we found that twelve…

…then used the models to forecast crime trends through 2026. Violent crime is forecast to decline through 2026, while property crime is expected to rise modestly in the same period….

…national violent and property crime rates. The researchers identified a small set of demographic, economic, and criminal-justice variables whose changes over nearly four decades closely track trends in crime. As…

…for violent crime and one for property crime. These proved very accurate in accounting for past trends, and were then applied to projecting crime rates through 2021. As well, the…

…partner, is forming a Crime Trends Working Group to collect, analyze and decipher U.S crime data. The group will “probe the nation’s changing crime trends, attempt to better understand them,…

…two-day symposium, organized by the Center on Media, Crime and Justice at John Jay College, convened journalists, scholars, and policymakers from around the country to discuss emerging crime and violence…

…created statistical models that retroactively “predicted” property and violent crime rates for past years with great accuracy and then used these models to forecast crime trends in the near future….

…analysis of differences in violent crime rates between United States and Japan, differences in both economic stress and social disorganization measures helped explain the differences in violent crime rates between…