The Future of Crime in Chicago and the Impact of Reducing the Prison Population on Crime Rates This report examines the effects of a small set of factors on violent and property crime rates in Chicago. The authors find that a statistical model based on the Illinois…
Nuclear Complacency: A Report from Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs and The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation Nuclear weapons pose the threat of a mass casualty event, every day. What prevents catastrophes is the prudential judgment of leaders, based on a set of principles, including deterrence, non-proliferation,…
Targeted Recruitment: Explaining Why Certain Clans Join and Eschew Al-Shebab in Somalia This research aims to comprehensively understand the dynamics of Al-Shabaab’s recruitment, particularly focusing on the clan-based structure of its membership and the group’s strategic recruitment methods. It reveals a multifaceted…
The Impact of Zoonotic Disease Outbreaks on Conflict in Africa …estimated based on the epidemiological causal estimation approach. Zoonotic disease outbreaks in Africa are not only public health crises but also catalysts for political instability and conflict. This project, supported…
HFG Pembroke College Research Fellow …violence. Selected by Pembroke College, the three-year award focuses on the causes, manifestations, and control of violence in the present world. Priority is given to candidates who make a compelling…
Throwing “Paper Stones”: Argentina’s Institutional Collapse My research project is about violence and legal institutions, and is focused on the case of Argentina. In December 2001 Argentina fell into what is considered the deepest crisis of…
The Association of Polymorphisms in Genes affecting Monoamine Neurotransmission with Aggressive Behavior in Schizophrenic Violent Individuals Violence remains an important sociobiological problem, and is reported to affect approximately 3.7% of the population each year. In the mentally ill, the prevalence of violent behavior is higher that…
Provisional Irish Republicans: Ten Years On The primary finding from my research is that, among Irish Republicans, there is a group of people who, no matter what, will not stop their involvement in political violence until…
Organization and Community: The Determinants of Insurgent Military Effectiveness …the (in)ability to keep ceasefires, to control who is targeted by violence, or to employ increasingly complex guerrilla or conventional tactics. Next, it develops a theory arguing that it is…
Private Gun Ownership in Modern China, 1912–1949 …Chinese civilians chose to arm themselves with guns and how governments of different periods responded to their armed civilians. This study argues that growing social violence and the state’s inability…