The Impact of Zoonotic Disease Outbreaks on Conflict in AfricaOre Koren, Indiana University Research Grant, 2021–2022 This study investigates the effect of zoonotic disease outbreaks on conflict dynamics in Africa from 1997 to 2019. Zoonotic diseases, which originate in animals and can infect humans, pose significant threats to public health and political stability. This research explores how these outbreaks influence different types of conflict, particularly focusing on state-initiated conflicts, rebel attacks, and social conflicts involving militias. The study used a newly created geolocated dataset tracking twenty-two zoonotic pathogens identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as significant outbreaks of concern in the region. This dataset was combined with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) to analyze armed and social conflict events across Africa. A gridded analysis approach was used, examining 0.5-degree (~55 km²) cells over 288 months. The analysis incorporated climate and socioeconomic indicators to control for local-level confounders and used multiple estimation procedures to ensure robustness against potential simultaneity concerns. This research explores how these outbreaks influence different types of conflict, particularly focusing on state-initiated conflicts, rebel attacks, and social conflicts involving militias. Key Findings: State-Initiated Conflict: Zoonotic disease outbreaks are associated with a significant reduction in state-initiated conflicts, with a decrease ranging from 5% to 120%. Social Conflicts: Outbreaks are linked to a notable increase in social conflicts driven by identity militias, with an increase ranging from 30% to 55%. Rebel Attacks and Political Militias: The relationship between zoonotic outbreaks on the one hand, and rebel attacks and political militia conflicts on the other, is ambiguous, with no statistically significant impact observed. The study first relies on linear regression models to identify the associations between zoonotic disease outbreaks and four types of conflict. Additional sensitivity analyses, including accounting for environmental stressors and conflict history, are used to assess the robustness of the results. For ensuring the results are robust to potential endogeneity and serial correlation, a series of two-way systems general methods of moments (GMM) approach was used. Finally, to obtain causal inference, average treatment effects in the treated/conflict-affected locations (ATT) was estimated based on the epidemiological causal estimation approach. Zoonotic disease outbreaks in Africa are not only public health crises but also catalysts for political instability and conflict. This project, supported by a Distinguished Scholar Award from The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, provides a template for assessing these impacts and suggests mitigation strategies to enhance political stability and prevent protracted conflicts. As the risk of zoonotic outbreaks increases, these findings underscore the need for comprehensive and coordinated responses to these dual threats, and suggest some measures for achieving these aims.
